The War with Iraq.
I have avoided it and avoided it, but its time that I finally expressed my thoughts about what is about to happen in Iraq. Right off the bat I will say that while I do not think this war is justified, that opinion is irrelevant, because the Bush Administration made up its mind long ago that it was going to invade Iraq, and neither public opinion nor pressure from the U.N. is going to change it. Frankly, its rather sad that we are all being held at the designs of a small cabal of military strategists (though Bush himself is not capable of what I would consider strategy) who want to secure a Pax Americana over the Middle East, but who are likely to just make the reigon more unstable and radicalize more young Muslims. To reiterate, the anti-war movement is now completely irrelevant, because it clearly does not matter how many millions of people rally against this war: Bush does not care. If you listen to how top-level U.S. government officials discuss the conflict, they have consistantly brushed aside intelligent discussion of any details, and focused more on vague accusations and what objectives they hope to achieve. That being said, this is how I see the situation:
It could be that the Bush Administration always had an invasion of Iraq in mind, but it became more important to them after the terrorist attacks of 2001. Frustrated by the elusiveness of Osama bin Laden and other terrorist figures, the hawks in Washington decided they needed a more traditional military conflict. Easily overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan was not enough--this is why they have targeted Iraq. I have not been, along with most of the international community, impressed by the fabricated links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, which the Bush Administration essentially propagates as inseparable. This specious reasoning--pathetic attempts to gain international support--is the most glaring reason why this upcoming war is illegitimate. Of course, there's no way I can prove that Iraq is not supplying terrorists with weapons (or will in the future), but if top U.S. intelligence can't prove it either, there's something seriously wrong. But I think its even simpler than that. Take a look at the figureheads involved: Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. Hussein is not a terrorist. Hussein is a head of state. Beyond that, he represents a classical military dictatorship. There have been dozens before him, and there will probably be dozens after him. Saddam Hussein only wants military and economic hegemony over his immediate sphere of influence, emanating from Baghdad. Hussein's old-fashioned military dictatorship is worlds apart from the likes of bin Laden, who has a different vision of the Middle East. Osama bin Laden is an evangecial figure, or at least sees himself that way. Radicalized Muslims want nothing more than the unification of the Middle East under a system where the state is inseparable from Islam. Hence, whereas Saddam wants to control the Middle East with military power, bin Laden envisions it unified under his brand of warped Islam. These goals may seem similar, but the approach is entirely different. In other words, Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden have no reason to be allies because they have different visions in mind. They both want to see the destruction of the United States, but for different reasons. Saddam is just a bully; bin Laden is a Saudi millionaire who fell under the spell of radicalized religion--those sort of people either preach in peace or become evangelists. This is why I am not convinced there is any link between Iraq and terrorism. What then is the point of this war?
The Bush Administration is trying to avoid a repeat of 9/11. But thus far their actions have done nothing to prevent more terrorist attacks, and the looming Gulf War II is only going to make things worse. It bothered me early on, in autumn of last year, why it was suddenly so important that Iraq be disarmed. It just came out of the blue, as if out of nowhere, more important than the lagging word economy, Iraq was the focus of attention at the highest levels of government. Why? I'm convinced that the Bush Administration just wanted (wants) to fight a war it knew it could win. The war on terrorism is about as effective as the war on drugs--how can you fight an underground network when you yourself are not underground? As I said above, frustration led to the fabrication of claims that Iraq is a rogue state that was or will supply arms to terrorists. I'm not going to get into the number of "rogues" the U.S. itself armed to combat the Soviet Union--in fact, the U.S. has preferred to support thugish dictators over any flavor of socialism--but suffice it to say, arms and training provided to Afghanistan in the 80's to fend of the Soviet Union have now descended to Al Qaeda.
The war with Iraq will be fought, and Hussein's dictatorship will collapse. I could care less what happens to Saddam himself, although murderous brutes like him probably should be punished. What really matters is the aftermath of the Iraqi war. There is no candidate that I have heard of who could lead Iraq in a democratic fashion. And whoever comes to power after Saddam would theoretically have to be both strong enough to have political legitimacy in the Iraqi peoples' eyes and be supportive of U.S. foreign policy. I fear that such a man does not exist. Saddam's inner circle will certainly vie for the crown themselves, and I doubt the U.S. will do much to prevent another ambitious dictator from rising to power. Democracy in Iraq will only exist as long as there is still a U.S. military presence there. Once the garrison leaves, it will be back to business as usual, and more in the Arab world will see the U.S. as the agressor. Since the U.S. continues to repeat this cycle overseas, supposed efforts towards peace will just serve to destabilize the world further.
The administration that is in power right now does not represent me. I do not trust them. Its unnerving to be a citizen of a country that is viewed with such contempt in the world because of the actions of our elected leaders. And I feel helpless, because democracy does not appear to be working. Our president does not care what the people want. He does not care what the international community feels is right. There are radicals in our government and in the Middle East that both have different visions of what the world should look like, and are prepared to fight to see it come true. Unfortunately, everyone else is stuck in the middle.